May- 8-2003 2000 UTC Day 1
Convective Outlook
Public Severe
Weather Outlook |
The SPC is forecasting an outbreak of severe thunderstorms today
and tonight across portions of the United States. This is an extremely dangerous situation.
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the latest public statement about this event. |
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STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB AND
NORTH CENTRAL OK...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SLN 25 SW CNK 40 WNW
CNK 20 SSE HSI 35 E HSI LNK 35 SSE OMA 35 ENE FNB 15 ENE MKC 30 NNW
JLN 30 E TUL 40 NNW MLC 35 WNW MLC 50 NNE ADM 45 SE OKC 35 SE OKC
20 ESE OKC 35 NNE OKC 10 SSW ICT SLN.
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUT
15 ESE RSL 35 N RSL 30 SW MCK 25 ESE IML 30 S BBW 25 NNW GRI
35 S SUX 45 WNW DSM 25 NE LWD 35 NNE SZL 15 SW SGF 10 W FSM
30 NE DUA 20 W DUA 25 SW ADM 45 WSW ADM 40 SE FSI 20 NNE END
20 W ICT HUT.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NE ECG 20 NNW DAN HSS HSV 20 N UOX LIT 45 SE PGO PRX 10 N ACT
40 NW AUS 50 NNW SAT 10 S JCT 25 NW JCT 35 ENE SJT 35 NNE FSI
40 SSW END 20 NNW P28 20 S HLC 45 SE AKO 20 ENE AKO 30 ESE SNY
45 NNW IML 25 NNW BUB OTG 30 ENE MKT 30 SSE EAU 30 S CWA 35 N MKE
AZO 20 SSW FDY 35 SE DAY UNI 15 NNE PKB 25 WNW MGW 35 SW AOO
35 S CXY 20 S ACY.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW DRT 35 NNE FSI
25 NW P28 35 SSW HLC GLD 10 ESE COS 20 NNE DRO 50 NNW NID
50 NW SFO ...CONT... 10 SW OTH 25 W RDM 40 SE BKE 15 WSW 4BQ
50 NNE MOT ...CONT... 60 NNW GFK 40 WNW BRD 20 NNE RHI DTW
...CONT... 20 ENE ERI 15 S JFK ...CONT... 15 SE CHS TUP 40 SSW HOT
45 ESE DAL 10 WNW LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 W CAR 35 SSW HUL
20 S BGR 15 SE CON 35 W GFL 20 ESE MSS.
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN KS WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING S FROM COLBY KS TO CHILDRESS TX. SFC THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDED NWD FROM NW OK INTO CNTRL KS WITH CELLS INCREASING ACROSS
NWRN-CNTRL KS BEHIND CLEARING LINE. TOWERING CU IS ALSO DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WCNTRL OK. THESE TWO AREAS
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PLACES FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AREAS FARTHER S POSSIBLY
HOLDING OFF LONGER...SEE MCD 850/851/852. STRONG LARGE-SCALE
FORCING...IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT AND STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. AS
THE SUPERCELLS MOVE N AND EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS...TORNADOES/LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS A WIDESPREAD
AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LONG-TRACK STRONG TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN KS WERE CLOUD HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWER WITH LCL HEIGHTS OF 600 TO 800 METERS. THIS AREA HAS
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND WAS E OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. SFC WINDS ARE ALSO BACKED E AND N OF THE SFC
LOW WHICH HAVE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES TO OVER 300 M2/S2.
SUPERCELLS FURTHER S ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK WILL ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY. IF THE CAP CAN BREAK INTO CENTRAL TX...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD AFTER MIDNIGHT...
STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
KEEP SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES GOING WITH A BROKEN LINE MOVING ACROSS
ERN NE/ERN KS/ERN OK. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR ACROSS IA/MO WITH A TRANSITION
TO SQUALL-LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS MO/NRN TN/SRN KY.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 50 KT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
...MID ATLANTIC...
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD ACROSS NRN VA INTO THE CENTRAL/SERN VA COAST INTO THE EVENING.
AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..BROYLES.. 05/08/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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