STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 032000Z - 041200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 S LSE 15 NW MSN RFD 35 WSW MMO 30 SE IRK 15 ENE MKC 15 SSW TOP
MHK 30 E CNK 15 S LNK 15 ESE OMA 40 NW DSM 30 NNW ALO 35 S LSE.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 E CSM 45 E FSI 40 N FTW 35 SSW FTW 45 SE BWD 45 NE JCT
35 NNW JCT 25 NNE SJT 15 N ABI 60 WSW SPS 25 NNW LTS 40 E CSM.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW MSS 25 N BOS
20 WSW BID 25 S JFK 20 NE CXY 30 ENE PIT 40 SE DAY 25 S SDF
20 W HOP 30 SSE JBR 30 E ELD 35 NNE LFK 50 S AUS 15 W LRD.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW P07
30 SSE MAF 45 E LBB 55 SSW GAG 15 SW P28 10 NNW HUT 10 W LNK
50 S SPW 35 W RST 45 ENE MSP 15 NE BRD 30 NW HIB 50 ENE ELO
55 NNE CMX ANJ 155 ENE APN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE CTB 25 E LWT
15 WNW 4BQ 40 S RAP 25 NNE SNY 45 WSW AKO 30 S 4FC 50 E PUC
45 WSW DPG 40 SE BAM 25 N LOL 45 ESE RBL 50 NW UKI.
...SRN PLAINS...
DRY LINE IS MIXING EWD IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA
AND TRENDS SUGGEST DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE EWD AND EXTEND FROM
WCNTRL OK...SWD TO NEAR OR JUST EAST OF ABI BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF SFC WIND SHIFT...LARGE SCALE
UPPER DIFFLUENCE SUGGESTS DRY LINE MAY BE MORE FOCUSED THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU AND SOME TOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRY LINE. SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES NOW EXCEED 2000 J/KG
WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-
35 KT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY ROTATE. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES FAVOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IF UPDRAFTS CAN SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 00Z THEN MOVE
EWD BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING.
...MID MS VALLEY...
EXPANSIVE ZONE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION
HAS IMPEDED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
REGION. CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND RENEWED FOCUS ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE LATER THIS EVENING FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LLJ INTO
SERN NEB SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE JUST NORTH OF SFC
BOUNDARY...THEN SPREAD ENEWD INTO IA WHERE WEAK MCS MAY EVOLVE WITH
TIME. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
ELEVATED ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TOWARD THE WARM SECTOR ALONG E-W BOUNDARY.
..DARROW.. 04/03/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z
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